Clearing the PR Pollution that Clouds Climate Science

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Slamming the Climate Skeptic Scam

Updated: June 15, 2009

There is a line between public relations and propaganda - or there should be. And there is a difference between using your skills, in good faith, to help rescue a battered reputation and using them to twist the truth - to sow confusion and doubt on an issue that is critical to human survival.

And it is infuriating - as a public relations professional - to watch my colleagues use their skills, their training and their considerable intellect to poison the international debate on climate change.

That's what is happening today, and I think it's a disgrace. On one hand, you have the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – as well as the science academies of every developed nation in the world – confirming that:

 

 

  • climate change is real;
  • it is caused by human activity; and
  • it is threatening the planet in ways we can only begin to imagine.

On the other hand, you have an ongoing public debate - not about how to respond, but about whether we should bother, about whether climate change is even a scientific certainty. While those who stand in denial of climate change have failed in the last 15 years to produce a single, peer-reviewed scientific journal article that challenges the theory and evidence of human-induced climate change, mainstream media was, until very recently, covering the story (in more than half the cases, according to the academic researchers Boykoff and Boykoff) by quoting one scientist talking about the risks and one purported expert saying that climate change was not happening – or might actually be a good thing.

Few PR offences have been so obvious, so successful and so despicable as this attack on the science of climate change. It has been a triumph of disinformation – one of the boldest and most extensive PR campaigns in history, primarily financed by the energy industry and executed by some of the best PR talent in the world. As a public relations practitioner, it is a marvel – and a deep humiliation – and I want to see it stop.

Here’s how it works: Public relations is not a process of telling people what to think; people are too smart for that, and North Americans are way too stubborn. Tell a bunch of North Americans what they are supposed to think and you’re likely to wind up the only person at the party enjoying your can of New Coke.

No, the trick to executing a good PR campaign is twofold: you figure out what people are thinking already; and then you nudge them gently from that position to one that is closer to where you want them to be. The first step is research: you find out what they know and understand; you identify the specific gaps in their knowledge. Then you fill those gaps with a purpose-built campaign. You educate. If people are afraid to take Tylenol (as they were after someone poisoned some pills), you explain the extensive safety precautions now typical in the pharmaceutical industry. If people think Martha Stewart is arrogant and uncaring, you create opportunities for her to show a more human side.

In the best cases – the cases that are most personally rewarding – your advice actually guides corporate behavior. That is, if a client wants to protect or revive their reputation, if they want to convince the public that they’re running a responsible company and doing the right thing, the most obvious public relations advice is that they should do the right thing.

It's the kind of advice that, historically, has been a hard sell in the tobacco industry, in the asbestos industry - and too often in the automotive industry. Those sectors have provided some of the most famous examples of PR disinformation: "smoking isn't necessarily bad for you;" "it's not certain that asbestos will give you cancer;" "your seatbelt might actually kill you if you're the one person in five trillion whose buckle jams just as your car flips into a watery ditch."

But few PR offences have been so obvious, so successful and so despicable as the attack on the scientific certainty of climate change. Few have been so coldly calculating and few have been so well documented. For example, Ross Gelbspan, in his books, The Heat is On and Boiling Point sets out the whole case, pointing fingers and naming names. PR Watch founder John Stauber has done similarly exemplary work, tracking the bogus campaigns and linking various pseudo scientists to their energy industry funders.

I have filled a whole book with details of the documented corporate action plans to deny climate change and confuse the public. Climate Cover-up will hit the shelves in the fall of 2009. In the meantime, one of the best proofs of climate disinformation came in a November 2002 memo from political consultant Frank Luntz to the U.S. Republican Party. Luntz followed the rules: he did the research; he identified the soft spots in public opinion; and he made a clever critical judgment about which way the public could be induced to move.

In a section entitled "Winning the Global Warming Debate," Luntz says this:

"The Scientific Debate Remains Open. Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate, and defer to scientists and other experts in the field."

If you download the memo and read the whole thing, you will notice that Luntz never expressly denies the validity of the science. In fact, he says, "The scientific debate is closing [against us] but is not yet closed."

" ... not yet closed"? Among those who disagreed with that assessment when Luntz wrote this report were the 2,500 scientists in the IPCC, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Royal Society of London and the Royal Society of Canada. In 2004, Donald Kennedy, editor-in-chief of Science magazine, said, "We're in the middle of a large uncontrolled experiment on the only planet we have." And to back up this sense of certainty, he reported that University of California, San Diego science historian Dr. Naomi Oreskes had published an analysis in Science in which she had combed through  928 peer-reviewed climate studies published between 1993 and 2003 and found not a single one that disagreed with the general scientific consensus.

Yet journalists continued to report updates from the best climate scientists in the world juxtaposed against the unsubstantiated raving of an industry-funded climate change denier - as if both were equally valid.

Notwithstanding, Luntz wrote: "There is still a window of opportunity to challenge the science." He recommended that his Republican Party clients do just that. He urged them to marshal their own "scientists" to contest the issue on every occasion. He urged them to plead for "sound science" a twist of language of the sort that George Orwell once said was "designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidarity to pure wind."

Luntz's goal – which was embraced with unnerving enthusiasm by the Bush Administration - was to manufacture uncertainty and to politicize science. Like all tragedy, it would be hilarious if you could play it for laughs.

Luntz himself actually backed off this position a couple of years later, saying that the evidence of climate change was overwhelming. So it’s difficult to tell who is being wilfully blind and who, like Luntz, was falling victim to gross negligence in the way they ignore the science - and in the potential catastrophic risks that they promote. Whichever way you cut it, their actions reflect badly on the whole public relations industry.

As you might assume from my earlier criticism, I'm not suggesting that Frank Luntz or even a dubious cabal of ethics-free PR people are solely to blame for the public confusion on climate change. They have received extensive, if clumsy assistance from the media, which in a facile attempt to provide "balance" is willing to give any opinion an “impartial” airing as long as it is firmly in contradiction with another.

This is not just a feature of the point/counterpoint talking heads that have emerged as the principal vehicle for television news. Newspaper reporters are just as guilty of canvassing "both sides" of every argument, often without providing any critical judgment as to the validity or relative weight of either side. On the issue of climate change, journalists have consistently reported the updates from the best climate scientists in the world juxtaposed against the unsubstantiated raving of an industry-funded climate change denier - as if both are equally valid. This is not balanced journalism. It is a critical abdication of journalistic responsibility. Any reporter who cannot assess the relative merits of a global scientific consensus - especially in contradiction to an "expert" that the coal industry is paying to help "clear the air" - deserves to have his pencil taken away in solemn ceremony and broken into bits.

There is yet more blame to go around. You could criticize scientists for the dense, cautious and conditional language that they use in talking about the threats of climate change. But in science, credibility is a currency (this, in apparent contradiction to the state of affairs in journalism or PR). A scientist who strays, even momentarily, off the path of certainty or who wanders from hard science into policy is immediately dismissed as someone with an axe to grind.

You could also criticize environmentalists, whose tendency has been to stray too far in the other direction, extrapolating scientific assumptions to create scare stories so dispiriting that they create apathy rather than activism. These, in turn, have made easy targets for the energy industry's climate change deniers.

The important thing at this point, however, is not to assign blame. It is to educate yourself and to join this increasingly urgent political debate. This is not one of those relatively low-level PR boondoggles. We're not talking about single individuals dying because the auto industry held out against seat belt laws. We're not even talking about many 100s of thousands of people dying of lung cancer because the tobacco industry held out for "sound science" while actively increasing the amount of addictive nicotine in their product. We're talking about the future of the planet.

So please read on.

Read everything.

If you are actually practicing public relations, take a close look at your clients and at your own performance. There has to be a point where principle trumps short-term economic gain, a point where you admit to yourself that it’s not worth the money to put the planet at risk.

Whatever you do, you must keep a wary eye. By all means, read the sites that deny the reality of climate change. But then check on www.sourcewatch.org to see who paid for those opinions. Read the DeSmogBlog. Don't accept the word of people who pass themselves off as "skeptics." Be skeptical yourself. Ask yourself what motive the scientific community has to gang up and invent a phony climate crisis. Compare that to the motives that ExxonMobil or Peabody Coal might have to deny that burning fossil fuels indiscriminately could change irrevocably our existence on the planet.

And if you still leave the lights on when you're done, make sure they're shining in the shamed faces of the PR pros who are still trying to prevent sound, sensible policy change to affect this, perhaps the biggest threat humankind has ever faced.

 

What's next?

False Premise

Anyone who starts with or even mentions the false premise that there's any debate on whether climate change is real immediately loses all credibility. 

Climate change can best be summed up with a single word:  INEVITABLE!

The next "big lie" is that there's any sort of absolute consensus on whether anthropogenic climate change is significant - though there is a consensus on this point, it exists only among the alarmists, most noteably those who's primary source of grant or other income depends on pushing this as a critical issue.  Perhaps the reason a plethora of studies showing otherwise may not be readily available is the fact that anyone in the scientific community who dares suggest the sky IS NOT falling suddenly is unable to secure grants... yet at some point the alarmists will have to admit their gloom-and-doom predictions have been consistelty proven to be grossly inflated at best and outright false at worst.  They got wise this time - their latest prediction sounds a lot like their last one but won't be testable for about 94 years - by that time most of us will be dead and their children grandchildren will be struggling to explain how they got it so wrong.

consistently

I think that's the only typo I missed... sticky keys - need a new keyboard!

Any benefits

In evaluating whether or not some sky-is-falling concept is true or not, I generally try to look at the size of the headlines, whether or not the highlights are in red, and whether or not there is some balancing information presented. In the case of GW, I see huge headlines, lots of highlights in red with flames around them, and absolutely nothing in terms of balance. One would at least expect some kind of balance with regard to the predictions of how GW might effect the future. IT CAN'T BE ALL NEGATIVE! In fact, there might be far more benefits to man than detriments. There might be some species that don't make it, even cute ones like Polar Bears, but GW will certainly also benefit some groups, and might even create new ones (if we believe anything Darwin said.) When I start to see balance, I will be less skeptical. P.S. I will also believe the scientists more when I see them investing their personal assets in things that will appreciate in value if GW is true, and divesting themselves from assets that will decline in value. No evidence to date of any such asset reallignment.

just who is manipulating the PR?

The PR folks that should be ashamed of themselves are the Gorizuki alarmists. Using small children to deliver a message they have no chance of understanding just so they can build a cardboard castle with Daddy, or Suzuki screaming at a classroom of children. This is disgraceful and even more so when you understand that the whole theory of AGW is being shown to be a hoax. Media outlets are beginning to tire of running the same old hype about AGW and are now beginning to run stories about the people that propagate the hoax. A new documentary is coming out from the good folks over in the UK demonstrating the lies of AGW. http://www.lse.co.uk/ShowStory.asp?story=CZ434669U&news_headline=global_warming_is_lies_claims_documentary

say no to Kyoto poll by David Suzuki

Here;s the poll results for the Suzuki poll on what should be done regarding CO2. http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:9yZWM0mqY9gJ:www.davidsuzuki.org/+David+Suzuki+Foundation&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1

Bickering

I don't see the need to continue arguing about the reality of climate change from CO2 - because the solution to global warming is beneficial in other ways - getting America off of foreign oil!!  Replace as much fossil fuel use with renewables and over just 7 years our energy bills, including gasoline costs, will go down if we also drive electric cars.

 The oilpeople don't want this to happen!! -

 - But reducing emissions from fossil fuels, by replacing them with renewable electricity, would be good for the rest of us - we actually kill THREE birds with one stone: 1] we kill pollution that causes asthma, cancer and heart disease; 2] America gets to reduce imports of expensive foreign oil, which lowers the energy bills; 3] we reduce emissions that are contributing to global warming [whether it is real or not, the potential threat is there, so do it anyway since there are other benefits].

  Really, it is time to stop the bickering and denials like that start off the comments after every DeSmogBlog article. I would like the last words on the subject to be: there is a high degree of certainty that GW is real, certainly the signs of warming are obvious, and if it is due to the sun then the CO2 is still contributing to it, and the relationship of warming and CO2 is historical fact. So get off the fossil fuels, decarbonise, it will be GOOD for us!!

Greg, you idiot. The

Greg, you idiot. The consensus on climate change is not 100%, but it's very close. Within the IPCC, 1.5% of scientists are skeptics. That said, 98.5% confirm climate change is real, and has significant impacts. They're not pushing this issue for grant money. It's so much easier to find examples of the skeptics pushing their views for money -- most of them are. See www.sourcewatch.org So anyways, 98.5% is a consensus. Not absolute, but very close. The IPCC isn't made up of alarmists. These scientists all have peer-reviewed journal articles. It's an outright lie to say that the "gloom and doom predictions have been consistelty proven to be grossly inflated at best and outright false at worst". Nothing's been proven either way. You also say they "won't be testable for about 94 years". That's true - and wow, you really contradict yourself in that paragraph -- you are one sloppy PR guy. The scientific consensus does lean heavily towards the so-called "gloom and doom" predictions. That's why it's time to move past the debate on climate change and start addressing ways to mitigate it.

Consensus of a Minority

Greg #2, you idiot, can you count? Does being a one-eyed-green make you lose your maths, your reason, your sense of balance? Don't you realise the IPCC isn't the scientific community or are you just a narrow minded dullard?

There's a big wide world out there and 2,500 at the IPCC are outnumbered 8 to 1 by the 19,000 scientists that have signed the Frederick Seitz petition against AGW.

You say misleadingly "The IPCC isn't made up of alarmists." Strange I thought most global alarm stories were genereted by IPCC computer game scare scenarios?!!

You say "wow, you really contradict yourself in that paragraph -- you are one sloppy PR guy" and then state "Nothing's been proven either way" and then say "The scientific consensus does lean heavily towards the so-called "gloom and doom" predictions. That's why it's time to move past the debate on climate change and start addressing ways to mitigate it."

Well it hasn't been proven either way (your words) so what precisely should we 'mitigate' Greg#2 ?

In the world of the sane climate observer you don't act to mitigate what is unproven. Got it?

Consensus For 2,500 - Consensus Against 19,000

The Consensus For man-made climate change consists of 2,500 IPCC scientists/researchers.

The Consensus Against man-made climate change total 19,000 scientists (and growing).

I make that 8 times more scientists against this global warming bunkum!

You say we've got to do something. Actually 19,000 scientists say the Earths climates fine and we don't need to do anything because we can't change the climate... or the tides, or the winds, or the sun, or cloud formation.. the climate in fact.

And you know what.. I believe the majority.

What Consensus?

Greg#2 - The IPCC claims to have about 2,500 scientists and you say 98% of them agree with man-made climate change. But over 19,000 scientists, that aren't IPCC have signed a petition against man-made climate science and their numbers (signatures) are still growing.

I don't give a hotdog for 'consensus' it's the science. An the science I've seen rests any global warming at the feet of the sun, cosmic ray flux, Earths magnetic fields and angle to the sun and water vapour.

There is no case I've seen (other than stupid IPCC computer models) that links CO2 with Earth warming up. There is no history in over 420,000yrs of CO2 ever driving temperature - in fact CO2 levels rise 400 to 1,400yrs AFTER all previous global warmings.

The fact is CO2 is innocent of the IPCC slur campaign. Fact.

Debate and climate change

I fear for reasoned debate when people who should have at least a pretence of intellectual vigour resort to labelling people with a contrary view by labels that demean rather than debating the science.

1)Just because a majority of "climate scientists" presume that Global warming oops now climate change is occuring because of Human action does not necessarily make it so.

2)Computer climate modelling is not reality.

3)Lies, damned lies and statistics. The devil in science is in the details. Just where do we start or measurements from and how we measure often reveals more about what poor scientists are trying to obstruficate as the truth rather than real science. The date measurements start is an obvious example of this.

4)Accusations of funding bias: Hint to those not in the know: Most science is sourced by organisations with an agenda. And to make a point not everyone trusts European science funding as it seems for to easily skewed towards justifying protectionism in trade.

Do you mean like this

Do you mean like this slander? /// http://www.canada.com/components/print.aspx?id=d622e9fa-cdc8-4163-8292-a1a554f58f94 “self-promoting” “sensationalist” “no professional credentials” “unscientific rhetoric” followed by a series of obviously false misquotes. Ask any of the quoted people.

Sorry for having my earlier

Sorry for having my earlier post deleted. I had some second thoughts about the criticisms I made. WRT your comment on slander, Ball has no right to slander Flannery for a lack of climatological know-how, for he has very little himself. Flannery is also a very successful and respected academic in phylogeny. There is no academic evidence of his understanding GCMs, but he would know as much as just about anyone regarding past climate changes. Neither one of them should really be a spokesperson on climate change, but they both have that right.

'Intellectual vigour'

'Intellectual vigour' indeed. To the second point, you should actually look at some state of the art computer modelling. These guys aren't dolts. They test their programs by modelling historical climates for which they have reliable independent data and the similarities are uncanny, at a high order of complexity. I was surprised myself how precisely they correlated. Yes, a model is not reality, just as a map is not reality. But if a map of Niagara Falls tells you that 3.4 k SSE of the downtown is a precipitious drop into the river, why don't you go right ahead and challenge that? To the third, science, above many other disciplines, has multiple ways to measure itself against reality, against which it stands or falls. When it strays too far from predictive accuracy it is no longer science. If you're going to challenge the consensus lets see a compelling hypothesis. In thirty years of denial not one such hypothesis has survived the 'rigour' of scientific testing; you're blowing smoke - and embarrassing yourself. The contention that 'most science' is skewed by agenda-driven external agencies is a vulgar smear; a desperate strategy advanced by losers who can't fight science on its own ground, see 'creationism'.

'Intellectual vigour' missing from IPCC

Owen,

You seem to be an eternal optimist on the side of hysterical pessimists which is a new irony somewhat lost on me!

You say "science isn't skewed by a political agenda" but you ignore the entire history of the IPCC is reports scewed by a political agenda. No scientific body in history has been criticised by so many scientists and so many scientists have never been so provenly right to do so.

You say "take a look at the state of the art modelling". you're having a laugh aren't you? No computer model on the planet can predict 5 days ahead accuraetly. The British modellers at the UK Met Office who contribute so much to the IPCC hit our shores!!

You're faith shows a 'religeous zeel' and blind faith so blind it's incredulous. The IPCC computer models of CO2 driving temperature as late as 2005 were fundamentally flawed. They are based on CO2 pushing up temperature which is the OPPOSITE MODEL to being accurate. Temperature drives up CO2 levels as proven in Dr Glassmans paper 'The Acquittal of Carbon Dioxide' based on the solutbility of CO2 in water.

You say "In thirty years of denial not one such hypothesis has survived the 'rigour' of scientific testing". Can I refer you both to Dr Glassmans paper - you will not only find in there the real reason for high CO2 levels (natural variability) but a host of flaws in the IPCC recording of CO2 levels, modelling of CO2 models, (mis)understanding of CO2 levels, scientific stupidities and real problems the IPCC has with even basic maths.

Finally, if you want to know what's false about the AGW scam try all of the following scare stories which are climatic lies;

1. Sea level rise - false
2. CO2 rise caused by man - false
3. Temp increase leads to more drought - false
4. Ice caps are melting - false
5. Oceans are acidifying/bleeching - false
6. Deforestation - false
7. Increased extreme weather - false
8. Polar Bear extinction - false
9. Alternative fuels are viable - false
10. Man by curbing CO2 can change weather - false

How many climatic lies can you lot of losers peddle before we lock you up in jail and throw away the key?

Johnny B: I am a secretly

Johnny B: I am a secretly skeptical atmospheric scientist. The fact that I'm skeptical might make you expect to agree with your facts, but you are wrong on a number of them:

1. Sea levels, on average, HAVE RISEN, though slightly.
2. The current CO2 spike is absolutely, positively, unequivocally and certainly caused by human activites.
3. Temperature increases do indeed tend to cause more drought. Precipitation and evapotranspiration increase equally overall, but the wet places tend to get most of the precip increase, so that (IF the climate warms) there is a tendency for the total portion of the globe projected to desertify to increase.
4. The spatial extent of ice caps IS decreasing. There are tiny pockets that are thickening - is this what you're referring to?
5. I'm afraid this isn't false either. I question the cause of most of the temperature rise, not the effect.
6. Did anyone ever say that climate change was causing deforestation? Chainsaws, axes and matches are each more effective.
7. I think I agree with you on this one that this will end up false. I actually think reduced equator to pole temperature gradients will reduce climate variability. Most of my peers disagree.
8. Not a clue.
9. You are definitely wrong on this one. It's just a matter of effort.
10. Oh, come on, even a climate alarmist would agree that we've already committed ourselves to high CO2 levels for the next couple of centuries, so no one disagrees with you on this.

Human nature

It is reassuring to think that most research is truly empirical and is not influenced by the researcher's thinking.

The contention that 'most science' is skewed by agenda-driven external agencies is a vulgar smear; a desperate strategy advanced by losers who can't fight science on its own ground....

This issue has been the subject of articles and books for at least the last century. Many authors have written that they believe most research is highly influenced by the researchers' opinions. One of the books that I read in a political science course (in the 1970s) proposed that no research was truly empirical. At they time, I disagreed with the author's premise. The more that I have learned, the more convinced I have become that this author was correct.

It is simply human nature to consider more strongly any data that is more in line with your beliefs than data which contradicts your beliefs. What you are painting as a "vulgar smear" is really an acknowledgement of human nature.

projectile vomit

"It is simply human nature to consider more strongly any data that is more in line with your beliefs"

... speaking from personal experience, and projecting.

No Brooks, scientists are not like you. Don't make out that they are. They're organised and trained to avoid an unfortunate aspect of human nature that you're conscious of but not ashamed of.

Quote from Andrew Lang

Your number 3 reminds me of a quote from Andrew Lang (1844-1912):

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts...

for support rather than illumination."

The Mann (1998) hockey stick graph

I read with interest all I can on the Global Warming situation to form an enlightened opinioin.  There is one article that I would like for anyone to comment, ie the article by McIntyre at this link: http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/McKitrick-hockeystick.pdf.  Their science seems rigorous.  If Mann (1998) is the basis of the IPCC comment on global warming, wouldn't their claim have an impact?  Doesn't this article deserve a serious response to really settle any claim?  Thanks.

No Reply, Of Course

Interesting to note in all the months that have passed not a single attempt to reply to the paper - one of those nonexistent attempts to debunk the "consensus" that global warming is man-made - that you linked.

The silence is both deafening and all-saying.

The "hockey stick" is not the end-all of climate change science

The (real) climate scientists at RealClimate.org have comprehensively addressed McKitrick's claims.  A quick Google search turned up these on the first page:

What If … the “Hockey Stick� Were Wrong?

Dummies guide to the latest “Hockey Stick� controversy

Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick"

(FYI for the blog administrators:  "rich text" is a huge pain for someone trying to format something in HTML, and when a poster has turned it off you should LEAVE it off through previews.)

Debunk THIS

Your referenced sites do not come close to debunking the fact that the hockey stick is merely an attempt to fit the data to the conclusion by picking the appropriate scale. 

I know that shouts of "the sky is falling" shake the money tree quite nicely but when subsequent observations suggest maybe it's not really falling after all, well, I guess then you turn to Hollywood and make a movie that's boring and innacurate yet packaged to appeal to those who are looking for a crisis to give their empty lives meaning.

Greg, are you a

Greg, are you a lobbyist or what? All the scientific groups that matter (the IPCC, the National Academies in the U.S., etc.) said the Mann study is basically correct. They do back your assertion that the 90's wasn't the warmest decade on record, but aside from that, they SUPPORT the study as valid science.

Sorry...

No "scientific group" besides the "Hockey team" has ever said that the Mann study was correct. They merely said that there are other studies that have similar results. This basically means: "hey Mann did something completely unjustified and incomprehensible to the data using some statistical methodology, but he got the result right!". Problem is that nearly all studies that are supposed to confirm the result are done in a similarly incomprehesible way, and have serious flaws themselves. IPCC isn't a scientific group by the way. It is an advisory body. That makes a whole lot of difference.ca

Hockey Stick fact or fiction?

Have anybody of you people bothered to look at Mann's website and read how he made up his graph? OK. For you who didn't here is a recap. The measurement was based part by temperature recording, but only going back 150 years. To go back further it was based on samples from ice cores measuring changes in Oxygen isotopes, measurement from growth of corals and from change in tree ring growth. Of course it was heavily reliant from tree ring recording which was normalized from tree rings and temperature recording from the last 150 years. Now think of that! The recording going back beyond 150 years was more or less solely based on variation in biological growth. The anomalous appearance of the graph is not caused by temperature changes, but by changes in the CO2 levels. Maybe you learned about the photosynthesis in school. The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the more growth you have of tree rings. If anything the graph shows that the level of CO2 over the last century has increased. Michel Mann's graph is nothing more than the emperor new cloth of human induced global warming. By the way. Have anybody of you looked at changes in the influx of Carbon14 which is formed by cosmic radiation? I don't think so! If you did you should have discovered that the variation of the cosmic radiation that reaches the earth more or less exactly inverted follows historical recording of changes in the climate, including the little ice age and the medieval warm period.

hockey stick

"the hockey stick is merely an attempt to fit the data to the conclusion by picking the appropriate scale". This is the McIntyre - McKitrick furphy that should have been laid to rest by now. So here for other readers than Greg (who will keep denying the obvious until he is blue in the face)the relevant passage from the report of the National Academy of Science on p.106 of the present online version: OCR for page 106. "As part of their statistical methods, Mann et al. used a type of principal component analysis that tends to bias the shape of the reconstructions. A description of this effect is given in Chapter 9. In practice, this method, though not recommended, does not appear to unduly influence reconstructions of hemispheric mean temperature; reconstructions performed without using principal component analysis are qualitatively similar to the original curves presented by Mann et al. (Crowley and Lowry 2000, Huybers 2005, D'Arrigo et al. 2006, Hegerl et al. 2006," If other statistical methods provided 'qualitatively' the same result this strongly suggests that the "hockey stick is not merely an attempt to fit the data to the conclusion". So the panelists involved in drawing up the report did not fall for this furphy repeated with mind numbing regularity by the denialists. The following report in the NYT of 22 June, apart from stating that Mann et al. were 'endorsed' with a few reservations by NAS, also comments on the M&M accusation of scientific dishonesty. The New York Times, June 22, 2006 "WASHINGTON, June 22 — "A controversial paper asserting that recent warming in the Northern Hemisphere was probably unrivaled for 1,000 years was endorsed today, with a few reservations, by a panel convened by the nation's pre-eminent scientific body." AND … "It has been repeatedly attacked by Republican lawmakers and some business-financed groups as built on cherry-picked data meant to create an alarming view of recent warming and play down past natural warm periods. At a news conference at the headquarters of the National Academies, several members of the panel reviewing the study said they saw no sign that its authors had intentionally chosen data sets or methods to get a desired result. "I saw nothing that spoke to me of any manipulation," said one member, Peter Bloomfield, a statistics professor at North Carolina State University. He added that his impression was the study was "an honest attempt to construct a data analysis procedure." More broadly, the panel examined other recent research comparing the pronounced warming trend over the last several decades with temperature shifts over the last 2,000 years. It expressed high confidence that warming over the last 25 years exceeded any peaks since 1600. And in a news conference here today, three panelists said the current warming was probably, but not certainly, beyond any peaks since the year 900." Arie Brand

Hockey Stick

It is true that the scientists at RealClimate have made an attempt to debunk the findings of McIntyre and McKitrick, but that is old stuff since recently TWO NAS-committees have clearly established that M&M were right: the 1990's werent the hottest decade in a millennium, nor was 1998 the hottest year.

And from a PR-pointof view I think that Mann's hockeystick got a lot more subsidised PR then M&M.

 

So engineer-poet why arent you more up to date?

 

 

Why He's Not Up-To-Date

Because he's too busy to go here:

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/

Up-To-Date

It's hard to see what's going on & get up-to-date when one's head is... well let's not go with that one, rather let's say "buried up to the neck in sand".

You're good at changing the subject

I'm not as up on things as I'd like to be because

1.  I'm neither a climate researcher nor retired,
2.  working for a living interferes with doing research, and
3.  what I do investigate tends to be solutions rather than the exact characteristics and history of the problem.

But enough of that.  A quick gander at RealClimate turns up the factoid that there are now over 400 vineyards in England, proving that oenoculture can no longer be used as an argument that the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than the present.  Second, the existence of a natural warming a thousand years ago does not mean that all warming is natural.  Third, the characteristics of what is warming (lower atmosphere, poles much more than tropics) and what is cooling (upper atmosphere) prove that this trend is driven by greenhouse gases rather than solar variation.  Last, undeniable dominance of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the recent changes in the atmosphere proves that it's our doing.

You can concentrate on little nits but the truth of the argument doesn't rely on them.  You can use those nits to deceive the public - maybe as you were yourself deceived - but it's just propaganda, not science.

Propaganda vs. Science

The purpose of propaganda is to get us to act emotionally not rationally.  The purpose of science is to get us to react rationally not emotionally.

The global warming alarmist such as yourself tell us it may already be too late, stop thinking about it, yet their only answer so far is to NOT actually reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas production (Kyoto was a joke - anyone with any sense admits that) but to pay the third world obscene bribes in the form of "carbon credits" to just go on polluting as usual.

I'll jump on the bandwagon and aggressively fight to reduce fossil fuel use when you & yours start backing:  NEW HYDROELECTRIC SOURCES, NEW NUCLEAR SOURCES, NEW SOLAR POWER FARMS, NEW WIND POWER FARMS.  So far, as far as I can see, those on your side of these issues talk a lot about switching to such alternate energy sources but when it comes to actually BUILIDNG them they scream NIMBY and nothing gets done.

Climate Change Deniers

Absolutes are the realm of relgion. In science a consensus and a trend is all we need to know, "which way the wind blows." It blows against the contrarians on this issue. Let's see, NASA, IPCC, National Academies of Science or the Raelians and The Fraser Institute, who are brothers in arms as far as I'm concerned. The choice is easy save to the mentally challenged. The scenario is still dangerous and the scope of my novel Warm Front.

Unreliable

I think you are missing the point: you still refer to RealClimate when two prestigious scientific committees have made clear that there are reasons to consider anything that comes from this site with suspicion. These people are in deep trouble, because although they use the word 'science' very very often.... if they do not give access to their raw material they violate that science themselves. You wouldnt buy a car from a salesman who doesnt allow you to look under the hood. In science such behaviour is much much worse and that is precisely what Mann et al have been doing. Hope you can find the time to check what happens next wednesday ( http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/News/07142006_1989.htm

Sure Mann may be only one  rotten apple, but the way the climate science community defends this apple suggests that this is not a critical scientific community, but a mutual admiration society that is incapable of cleaning itself, and it also suggests that the loss of the hockeystick has grave consequences for their arsenal of arguments.

Btw, I am a journalist from the Netherlands. I am not beyond mistakes, but I try to check both sides of a problem.

So far M&M have shown that Mann et al have made several mistakes and have behaved in such an unscientific way that they ought not to be trusted anymore. That does NOT mean that the earth is not warming (Steve McIntyre has never suggested that). That is an entirely different discussion. Personally I think the earth has been warming a little the last century, but whether this warming is unique, problematic or for the greatest part caused by humans is entirely open as far as I am concerned. It seems however to break the opposition against nuclear energy which is a good thing.

And with regard to propaganda: can you name me the skeptic equivalent of Al Gores movie?

I missed this one on first pass

This page - responsible party an attorney - hardly an expert on "integrity"...

Now I understand the slick packaging and arguments without a shred of actual fact to back it up.

Oh This is GOOD

I especially liked these sections, commenting on the anthropogenic global warming alarmists:

 

  • A social network analysis revealed that the small community of paleoclimate researchers appear to review each other’s work, and reuse many of the same data sets, which calls into question the independence of peer-review and temperature reconstructions.

Report: “It is clear that many of the proxies are re-used in most of the papers. It is not surprising that the papers would obtain similar results and so cannot really claim to be independent verifications.”

  • Although the researchers rely heavily on statistical methods, they do not seem to be interacting with the statistical community.

Report: “As statisticians, we were struck by the isolation of communities such as the paleoclimate community that rely heavily on statistical methods, yet do not seem to be interacting with the mainstream statistical community. The public policy implications of this debate are financially staggering and yet apparently no independent statistical expertise was sought or used.”

  • Authors of policy-related science assessments should not assess their own work.

Report: “Especially when massive amounts of public monies and human lives are at stake, academic work should have a more intense level of scrutiny and review. It is especially the case that authors of policy-related documents like the IPCC report, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, should not be the same people as those that constructed the academic papers.”

I remember a cartoon about dinosaurs that had a corporation called "We Say So" or some such.  Reminds me of the anthropogenic global warming alarmists - "It's true because we say so!" 

I also love the fact that they give the false argument that the only place you can find people who disagree with them is on non-peer-reviewed web sites yet that is exactly where most of them appear as well.  When A verifies B verifies C verifies A (all from the same faulty analysis of a single questionable dataset) it looks more like collusion than actual science.  Finally, when I studied statistics I found that any statistician worth his salt learns in his first year to fit the data to the conclusions much like Mann et Al (Gore) did...

Al Gores movie equivalent vs. Blog

There is no "equivalent" from the skeptics side for Al Gores movie, because there is no science to produce such a movie.  If you read this Blogs post, the methodology used by the skeptics PR team is to be subtle and create doubt/confusion.  If they created a movie and tried to present "credible" scientific evidence that global warming is NOT happening or human activity is NOT a factor, it would be clear to anyone with a little science that they are wrong.

Any researcher knows that the more noise there is in the data the more difficult it is to find what you're looking for.  In this case, all the skeptics need to do is increase the level of noise and the average person will be unable to find the truth.

The REAL Inconvenient Truth

Though I'm sure you'll dismiss this with some typical excuse, perhaps the best layman-friendly explanation of issues and facts I've seen to date appears here:

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/

OK maybe it's not chock-full of citations and is not peer-reviewed.  It's still about the best darn simple-to-comprehend yet impossible-to-shrug-off summary of the topics involved in this debate I've seen in a while, possibly ever.

Skeptic equivalent movie

The Friends of Science (www.friendsofscience.org), (not to be confused with The Friends Of Science - www.friendsofscience.ca) are a group funded indirectly and discreetly by the oil industry - (not discreetly enough for Charles Montgomery of the Globe and Mail though). The Friends of Science HAS released a DVD 'movie' called "Climate Catastrophe - CANCELLED which at first blush contradicts much of Al Gore's work. This DVD, I am assuming, is being distributed for free at the very least to schools in the Calgary region and possibly to other schools as well(as an educator in a school in Calgary I received a copy from one of my collegues who was approached during school hours and given several copies for free to show to the students and distribute as he saw fit...). I hope if other schools were approached that they also did their due diligence and discovered where the funding for the DVD and the FoS (lower case 'o') comes from. Arno Lukas BSc, BEd

Sources?

I'm trying to find some verification of your claim, Theo, but I guess I need some help. Looking at the NAS, the most recent hockeystick-related press release I can find is here. Far from "clearly establish[ing] that M&M were right", this report only raises a very mildly stated question about the scope of Mann's evidence. The general gist is:

"The Research Council committee found the Mann team's conclusion that warming in the last few decades of the 20th century was unprecedented over the last thousand years to be plausible, but it had less confidence that the warming was unprecedented prior to 1600; fewer proxies -- in fewer locations -- provide temperatures for periods before then."

In other words, the fact that most of the proxy evidence shows local temperatures rather than global temperatures made them less certain about the pre-1600 data. It did not, by any stretch of the imagination, say that Mann's conclusions were wrong, or even unlikely (indeed, it said they were "plausible").

Are there some more recent reports that I'm missing out on? We are talking about the same NAS, right?

Mann has claimed that 1998

Mann has claimed that 1998 was the warmest year in the past millennium and the 90ies were the wearmest decade. This is the essential part of propaganda that comes originally from Mann and which has been used over and over again to scare the hell out of us and it is precisely this statement that the NAS-panel has thrown away. The statement that the end of the 20-ieth century was the warmest in 400 years is empty, it was the claim that it was the warmest in a millennium that was important since that included the claim that today the earth is warmer than the Medieval Warm Period. That can no longer be claimed. And as regards to 'plausible'... it is entirely plausible that the car under which hood I am not allowed to look will nevertheless drive, it is however not enough argument to buy it.

And as regards to the other report you are missing, check the Wegman-report. I'll concede that this is not a formal NAS-report but since Wegman is chief of the statistics section of NAS (I have no time to look up the formal description sorry) it comes very close. Was the NAS-report somewhat schizophrenic, this latest report certainly is devastating for Mann et al. An explanation for the doublehearted character of the first report may be that this panel also contained people from Mann's coterie, whereas this statistical comittee had no relations with these people.

Mann's findings upheld by the NAS

Theo et all, you've failed to demonstrate that the NAS report says what you claim it does.  Also, your claim that Mann said 1998 was the hottest year in a millenium is a mistatement- I believe Mann said "was likely," or "was probably" which is still correct (although 2005 tied or beat 1998 as the hottest recorded years, depending on whose numbers you are using).  Also, the "Midevil Warm period" wasn't a global phenomenon, so it doesn't really matter if some parts of the world are colder today than they were then.  We're interested in GLOBAL warming (i.e. climate, not localized changes). 

Also, statistics are useful, but they don't explain why things are happening- you need to understand the actual physical mechanisms as well.  Climate scientists generally use both, so I don't see this need for more statisticians.

 p. 109:

The basic conclusion of Mann et al. (1998, 1999) was that the late 20th century warmth in the Northern Hemisphere was unprecedented during at least the last 1,000 years. This conclusion has subsequently been supported by an array of evidence that includes the additional large-scale surface temperature reconstructions and documentation of the spatial coherence of recent warming described above (Cook et al. 2004, Moberg et al. 2005, Rutherford et al. 2005, D’Arrigo et al. 2006, Osborn and Briffa 2006, Wahl and Ammann in press), and also the pronounced changes in a variety of local proxy indicators described in previous chapters (e.g., Thompson et al. in press). Based on the analyses presented in the original papers by Mann et al. and this newer supporting evidence, the committee finds it plausible that the Northern Hemisphere was warmer during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period over the preceding millennium. 

Greens Move Goalposts

Roger,

You're trying to smear the facts and move the goalposts. You say "I believe Mann said "was likely," or "was probably" which is still correct.."

Mann claimed that the temperature increases that we have been experiencing are "LIKELY to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years" and that the "1990s WAS the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year" of the millennium.

Firstly it is not good science to say "likely". It is either a fact or it's not. That is what science is about. Making claims is not science.

Secondly Mann was incorrect to try to make it as science and was for the record incorrect to make it as claim too. The Medival Warm Period was 2 degrees warmer.

Thridly the NAS report is a scientific whitewash for supporting claims and saying they are 'plausible'. NAS is a scientific body and plausability is not science. It is crud. The NAS whitewash brings NAS as a scientific body into disrepute.

Finally Manns falicous claims made scaremongering headlines around the world and set in motion global warming theory. The IPCC itself which took years to remove the graph has systematically allowed false climatic lies to be circulated without correction or any sense of responsibility for the misleading stories they generate.

Like NAS, the IPCC are a disgrace to the scientific community in the way they (mis) manage science and allow the public to be duped.

Smog too

When these arguments against 'the reality of global warming caused by fossil fuels emissions' come up again and again, they are forgetting that we have TWO reasons for reducing fossil fuel emissions - global warming AND pollution. Cancer, athsma, and other diseases are increasing, and fossil fuel emissions play a major role in that. The harms of air pollution are real, and that is accepted. Alone, that is reason enough to switch over to renewable clean energy sources. "If" climate change is real, then that is another good reason to reduce our fossil fuels emissions. I think we could stop the denier's rants by pointing this out whenever they bring up their arguements against global warming caused by fossil fuel emissions. Lets stop yakkin' and get on with it!!!!!

"plausible"

It is clear from comments on this blog that Mr.Richel, who has managed thus far to pose as a 'science journalist' in the Netherlands, has some difficulty to impose his misrepresentation of the NAS-report on this English language audience, even though he doesn't dare to go further here than the suggestion that the report is 'schizophrenic'. He has been bolder with his Dutch audience where he has been following Senator Inhofe's line that the NAS-report showed that the hockey stick was broken ('kaput' said Mr.Richel). In doing so he took particular liberties with the interpretation of the word 'plausible' in the Panel's statement that it is indeed plausible that recent decades have been the warmest for a thousand years. Richel, who must have been aware that in the press conference following the release of this report panel members stated that this term meant that the odds for this being the case were 2 : 1, informed his Dutch public on the use of this term as follows."according to insiders they meant with this that the chance that Mann is right is less than 50%. In short you would be better off throwing up a coin". And this man postures as a champion for honesty in science. Arie Brand

Hockey Stick Info.

Go to http://www.climateaudit.org. This Steve McIntyre's website found the flaws in the hockey stick work.
Note this site often gets into some really detailed discussions of math and stats.

Hockey Stick Dumped

Metaskeptic

You say NAS investigated Manns hocket stick graph and concluded "It did not, by any stretch of the imagination, say that Mann's conclusions were wrong, or even unlikely (indeed, it said they were "plausible")".

Can I point out firstly good science does not work on being "plausible". Science only works on hard facts. NAS conclusions, a pro-AGW group, undermines their own body as a credible scientific establishment and Manns hockey stick graph which is and as statitician Dr Edward Wegman concluded) factually incorrect.

It may be the reason the IPCC itself has removed the graph despite NAS's obvious whitewash about the science.

400 vineyards in England

Engineer Poet,

You say "400 vineyards in England, proves that proving that oenoculture can no longer be used as an argument that the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than the present."

Just for your info the English vineyards are all in the South of England. In Roman times they were 200 miles further North near Scotland. This previous warming was 2 Degrees warmer than current. And there are no problems with either temperature.

So it actually shows further warming is not a problem and cannot be used as an argument for immediate changes and the AGW's pushing us into diabolical policies.

Then you say "Second, the existence of a natural warming a thousand years ago does not mean that all warming is natural".

Well to date, to point out the blinkin obvious, yes it does actually!

Then you say "Third, the characteristics of what is warming (lower atmosphere, poles much more than tropics) ...prove that this trend is driven by greenhouse gases rather than solar variation."

Again not true. Firstly the expected 'fingerprints' of greenhouse gas warming have not been found. Secondly the Antatrtic hasn't changed temperature in 50 years and is not warming.

Then you say "Last, undeniable dominance of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the recent changes in the atmosphere proves that it's our doing."

Again untrue. No link has been proven between greenhouse gas and tamperature changes. Indeed the last 10yrs, when GG have been at their highest, the Earths temperature hasn't changed one iota. This last decades static temperature proves there is no link with greenhouse gases.

Finally you sum up, "You can use those nits to deceive the public - maybe as you were yourself deceived - but it's just propaganda, not science."

I agree. Your post is propoganda, it is materially, climatcially inaccurate and has no science.

The Hockey Stick Wasn't Debunked

However since 1998, there have been at least ten proxy studies, analysing a variety of different sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes, ice cores, etc. The results all confirm the same general conclusion: although each of the temperature reconstructions are different (due to differing calibration methods and data used), they all show some similar patterns of temperature change over the last several centuries. Most striking is the fact that each record reveals that the 20th century is the warmest of the entire record, and that warming was most dramatic after 1920.

From

http://www.skepticalscience.com/broken-hockey-stick.htm

Ten Hockeysticks

Good courage to speak out about this bad PR.

I saw the link on Bourque.

I am glad you had the courage to speak out about this.

In general, our society is controlled by lies and coercion.

Dishonesty, backed up with violence, is everywhere ...

My view is that nothing is more important to resolving

the problem of global warming than changing the

fractional reserve banking or debt engine systems.

 The triumph of dishonesty backed up with violence

 has resulted in a fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting.

 Our political economy is the now based on fraud that evolved from robbery.

 Our industrial development went down the path of least resistance ...

 One minor feature of this overall integrated system was drug prohibition.

 Anyway, enough for now.

 Congratulations on speaking out so clearly on this important problem.

 

 

 

About the climate cover-up

About the climate cover-up

Democracy is utterly dependant upon an electorate that is accurately informed. In promoting climate change denial (and often denying their responsibility for doing so) industry has done more than endanger the environment. It has undermined democracy.

There is a vast difference between putting forth a point of view, honestly held, and intentionally sowing the seeds of confusion. Free speech does not include the right to deceive. Deception is not a point of view. And the right to disagree does not include a right to intentionally subvert the public awareness.

Although all public relations professionals are bound by a duty to not knowingly mislead the public, some have executed comprehensive campaigns of misinformation on behalf of industry clients on issues ranging from tobacco and asbestos to seat belts.

Lately, these fringe players have turned their efforts to creating confusion about climate change. This PR campaign could not be accomplished without the compliance of media as well as the assent and participation of leaders in government and business.

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